It seems that mother nature is playing some cruel tricks to begin the storm chase season this year. After a slow March (zero chases) and a slow start to April (1 chase), my second storm chase was lining up quite nicely a few days prior to the event. A large trough was set to develop with a low pressure system moving out of the West and ejecting into the plains on the week of 4/15. There were some concerns that this system would be similar to the last bringing a front surging South out across Oklahoma. In turn undercutting the severe weather potential. Models were in great disagreement on how this severe weather scenario would unfold. All the way up until the day of the event, the NAM was showing a front reducing the severe weather threat, but still bringing a significant chance for severe weather to Oklahoma and Texas.
The GFS however was showing a large-scale severe weather event with the front lying further to in Kansas creating a large warm sector in Oklahoma with the dry line being a focus for large tornadic thunderstorm development on 4/27. This model disagreement left storm chasers and forecasters perplexed as to how this event would unfold. I figured that the result would be somewhere in the middle with the front becoming stationary somewhere near the Kansas/Oklahoma border creating the potential for a moderate severe weather event. When ever an event sets up this far away from my home. I usually try to take a multi day trip to get the most bang for my buck. Typically you will have some thunderstorms sometimes significant on the day before the day type setup. With this in mind, I decided to head out for my chase the evening of 4/15 targeting Abilene Texas for 4/16 and then move NE for the big event to the Wichita Falls area. I departed and took an over night stay in Tucumcari New Mexico. Waking up for some beautiful sunrise shots on my way to Abilene.
I arrived in Abilene the afternoon of 4/16. Models were pointing at a decent shot of a few isolated supercells developing around the area later in the afternoon. The potential was not huge, but as I said sometimes it makes sense to take a shot one day before the big event to nab a few bonus supercells. One model was showing a supercell initiating near Abilene and moving NE. This was exciting to see but my hopes were not very high as we were lacking a few things and the cap was also a concern. I wandered around Abilene for a while taking in the sights and eating some lunch. I think I was located in one of the more run down areas of Abilene as there were some shady individuals lurking around my car at times. I think my live camera on my dash board was peaking some interest. The show never starting this day. The cap won and I sat relaxing and taking in the city. Cumulus towers tried to develop but never could get over the hump. These type of days are actually less stressful for me due to the fact that my expectations are not very high. Early evening I decided to make my way to the day 2 target in Wichita Falls. A beautiful sunset did develop and I caught some great scenes near Anson Texas including the Anson Texas Courthouse.
After snapping some shots of this beautiful Texas sunset I made my way to overnight in Wichita Falls. The storm chaser chatter had ebbed and flowed about the big event the night before. It is always entertaining to watch see the different opinions and expectations when a big storm chase presents itself. Everything from complete bust to tornado outbreak was being thrown around on Facebook and Twitter. I believed that it would be difficult to not have at least a few supercells in NW Texas and SW Oklahoma. I woke up the morning of the big event after getting very little sleep. Only a storm chaser can understand the excitement that builds when a system looks promising. The butterflies build and sleep is a second thought to look over models and discussing targets. This can be bad because it is best to have a clear mind on chase day. I made my way towards Vernon Texas as this looked to be the initiation point for large supercells. Even the NWS had jumped on board the hype at this point discussing the potential for possible large and damaging tornadoes in SW and Central Oklahoma. The storm chaser fever built to a fevered pitch and chaser convergence would be a major issue as the SPC had stuck with a moderate risk for storms with tornadoes and large hail. A tornado watch was issued for all of Oklahoma and storms began to fire early in the afternoon around Vernon Texas. The initial cells looked good but were disorganized as they often are this early in the game. I watched one cell near Frederick Oklahoma strengthen and develop a nice wall cloud that did have strong rotation at times.
The theme for the day was already becoming clear even this early on. Storms would form with a nice wall cloud showing potential for dropping a strong tornado only to weaken and try and strengthen again. This particular cell near Frederick did gain some steam as it moved NE. Sadly, I was caught off guard and got behind the hail core. I had to get ahead of the storm and around to the SE side where a nice hook echo had formed along with reports of a strong wall cloud. I moved towards Snyder to head East and get into Lawton where the storm was tracking. As with my last chase, I had a rental car again and was a little nervous punching a hail core even with the additional insurance I had purchased. Based on radar the hail was not extremely large so I took the risk and blasted through the core. I came out on the other side a little dazed with a modest crack in the windshield. Uggg! I was not pleased as I never enjoy harming someone else’s property. Regardless, I made it to the other side of the cell and came into view of the wall cloud West of Lawton. Tornado sirens were blaring and upon review of radar it looked like cells were merging and forming along the warm front parked in Central Oklahoma. Cloud seeding was taking place and cold air was causing these storms to not realize their full potential. This good news for Lawton as the city was in the direct path of this storm. Overall the storm was not that photogenic but I did get one nice photo of the storm with an embedded wall cloud.
Even though this cell was not realizing its full potential, it did pack a punch. A very brief and weak tornado touched down on the west side of Lawton causing power flashes as it hit a transformer. I did not pursue the storm for long as I new anything that formed would not be photogenic. It was disturbing however to see thousands of people going about business as usual in Lawton with a tornado warned storm bearing down. Had this been a major event numerous casualties would have been realized due to this complacence. A little bit defeated knowing that storms were not going to get it done today, I dropped South and West hoping for a “tail end charlie” type storm back near Vernon Texas and the dry line. This was also an area with a strong CAPE tongue pushing in and enhance lower level shear in place. I got to Vernon just in time to see a strong cell erupt. This was my chance. I watched for some time as the storm continued to strengthen and weaken. Some large hail and heavy rain was taking place and I incorrectly assumed that this storm would take the same path up along the boundary as the previous cells. It was moving NE and had yet to take a Right turn into more unstable air. I gave up. I started heading West for home and cutting my losses. BAM!! I was 30 minutes West of Vernon and there it was. Tornado warning for the cell I had just been on. Reports of a cone tornado on the ground. I stopped on the highway and my head hit the steering wheel. In my groggy state of mind I had broken the cardinal sin. I left the storm before dark and too early. After, taking a moment to realize my mistake, and knowing I was to far to make it back. I began limping back home. On my way back I saw a few photos of the tornado that did form, it was picturesque as a cone for a moment but quickly weakened and was gone. However, it was a tornado and I was frustrated I missed it. Such is storm chasing..one false move…one second to late and you miss the show sometimes. This trip was an overall bust in my terms and I was already over it as I made my way back through the Panhandle of Texas towards Colorado. I did get a nice sunset to close the day near Childress Texas.
In the craziness I had forgotten to check the weather back West. Come to find out that a substantial snow storm had developed in parts of Colorado and the panhandles. Here comes the salt in the wound. I was stuck in Dalhart Texas due to the roads being closed at both entry points home. I had a lot of time to review what went wrong with a day that looked like a guarantee for my first tornado of 2013. In the end, in my opion, winds in the mid levels did not support tornado development. In short a veered, backed, veered wind field, a modest cap and warmer 700 mb temperatures doomed this set up. For a tornadoes and even strong isolated supercells to develop and maintain themselves all of the ingredients have to come into play. In April, it can be difficult to get these ingredients that are more common in May and June. I learned some valuable lessons from this chase. No matter how promising the set up looks a few key ingredients can kill the whole day. Great news for the general population, bad news for storm chasers. I also need to take early season storm chase setups with a grain of salt and really not build my hopes up so much. I did however get some nice winter landscape shots in the panhandle area. I did finally make it home the following day after 17 hours of driving home. Jeesh……
This year has been dominated by cold air and winter conditions lasting well into the spring. The pattern will likely break in May as there have been years where tornado alley does not come alive until later in the spring. I will wait and watch as the next weather system occurs and my next chase comes into view. Until then…Chase With Passion!
Zach Roberts
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