Polar Vortex..drought and where are the tornadoes? 2014’s Top Weather Stories

This is the month where every blog, newspaper and social media source will put together their “Year in Review.” We are no different because no great platform for information would be complete without a countdown of the top events related to the site.

When I think of our weather of 2014 here in central Ohio, it has been sort of, well, boring. We did not have any great blizzards, no spring or summer storms of significance, and the fall has been more of the same. From the outlooks posted for the winter of 2014/2015 in our area, it does not appear the weather is going to be any more exciting soon.

While our weather has been ho-hum, it certainly has not been this way everywhere in the United States. So let’s review the top weather stories of the year.

POLAR VORTEX

Each December, Lake Superior State University announces their List of Banished Words (http://www.lssu.edu/banished/current.php) which should be removed from the dictionary of every day life. This year’s list includes Twittersphere, any word ending with the suffix –ageddon or pocalypse, and selfie. In my opinion, their list has a glaring omission – Polar Vortex.

Polar Vortex is by far the most overused term of the year but what is it exactly? CBS – Boston Meteorologist Eric Fisher states it is a large area of circulation between the north and south poles. It tends to be stronger in the winter, but it does occur in the summer as well. The circulation is tens of thousands of feet up in the atmosphere. Basically when the circulation of air drifts southward in the winter, it brings a rush of cold air with it. Meteorologists know this phenomenon as circumpolar vortex, but this apparently was not “sexy” enough for the media, hence we are stuck with the term polar vortex.

In early January, the jet stream dipped far south in the United States from Canada and this brought with it heavy rains and snow on the leading edge of the system. Behind the storm system itself, were high winds and cold temperatures leading to consecutive days of dangerous wind chills. Schools and businesses closed down, Amtrak stopped their service to and from Chicago, and many people stayed home to wait for the weather to warm. Many records for snowfall, rain and cold were broken in December 2013 and January 2014 throughout the central, eastern and southern US.

Whether or not we have another round with a dipping jet stream this season remains to be seen. There was an opportunity for it in November, but it certainly did not pack the same punch as the storm in December and January.

ALASKAN HEAT

While the lower 48 was frozen in January, Alaska recorded its warmest month in history. According to The Weather Channel, the warmth was caused by a persistent and expansive ridge of high pressure settled across the state. To the east of the ridge, the jet stream dipped dramatically which set up the extreme winter weather conditions across the lower-48 of the US.

The National Weather Service confirmed the state tied its all-time January record high of 62 degrees near Port Alsworth on Monday, January 27. The temperature has only been this high in Alaska in January on two other occasions in recorded history. The first time was Jan. 30, 1940 in Craig and the second was Jan. 16, 1981 in Petersburg.

The average high temperature in Port Alsworth is about 23 degrees, so the high on Jan. 27 was nearly 40 degrees above average. Port Alsworth is southwest of Anchorage.

The warm weather was not just in January, however. Climate.gov, a partner of NOAA, stated in October the Northeast Pacific Ocean, including Alaskan waters, has been unusually warm since winter 2013. In the Bering Sea, the ice coverage was well below the past few years, and by mid-summer 2014 sea surface temperatures were also well above normal.

At Cold Bay, the months of July, August and September were each the warmest since records began in the 1940s. The month of June was the second warmest. The August average temperature of 56.4 degrees was not just the warmest on record, but the warmest month in more than 70 years.

TORNADOES GONE

This year we have seen another potentially record low year of tornadoes in the United States. As of November 9^th, the United States had only 848 tornadoes reported (only 401 of these have been confirmed). If the cold air and winter conditions arrive early, as expected, it would mean we could be looking at another record low year for tornadoes.

The current record low for reported tornadoes was set in 2012 at 908. In 2013, there were 939 reported tornadoes – also one of the lowest totals ever recorded. In comparison, there were 1691 reported tornadoes in the US in 2011.

NOAA recently published a study showing there is a pattern of tornadoes occurring on less days overall, but there tends to be multiple tornadoes on those days when they do occur. Harold Brooks, research meteorologist with the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory states the consequence of this fact is communities should expect a higher likelihood of catastrophes.

Despite the low number of twisters overall, there were a couple notable tornado events this year. The first was the late April outbreak from Nebraska to North Carolina and many places south and in between. Many of the tornadoes from the 27^th through the 30^th were long-tracked and seven of them were deadly with 35 deaths overall. The strongest of the tornadoes occurred in Vilonia, AR, a town which had seen another deadly tornado in April 2011. The one this year was classified as an EF4 on the Enhanced Fujita scale and had winds of 190 MPH.

On June 16, the state of Nebraska was hit with a family of tornadoes, one set of twins, and four of the tornadoes were rated EF4. The first tornado touched down as an EF0 near Stanton and caused no damage. Shortly after, another tornado touched down to the southwest of Stanton as an EF0 or EF1, but as it made its way northeast, it grew into an EF4 wedge. After the Stanton tornado, a new weaker tornado touched down southwest of Pilger. It intensified as it approached town and eventually into an EF4 as it hit Pilger directly. As the main tornado was coming towards town, a second tornado developed east of town and paralleled the path of the main twister. Pilger sustained heavy damage in the downtown area and at least two people were killed.

DRIED OUT

For the third year in a row, the state of California has been experiencing severe drought conditions. The rainy season in the state is traditionally October through March. However as the beginning of 2014 rainy season commenced, the weather has been mild in the Sierras and this suggests conditions might not improve during the winter of 2014/2015.

In January 2014, Gov. Jerry Brown declared a Drought State of Emergency as water combination of winter rains and melting snow-pack in the spring to replenish the water reservoirs.

The Drought Monitor Report categorizes drought severity into Abnormally Dry (D0), Moderate (D1), Severe (D2), Extreme (D3), and Exceptional (D4). According to The Drought Monitor in November 2014, nearly 80 percent of the state is in extreme drought.

Daniel Griffin, an assistant professor of geography at the University of Minnesota, stated in a report published in NewsMax (www.newsmax.com), it is clear the drought conditions will continue.

Griffin, along with paleoclimatologist Kevin Anchukaitis, of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution co-wrotean article to show how the current drought compares to those of the past. The research determined over the past 1,200 years, three-year droughts have occurred at least 37 times and 44% of three-year droughts can last for four years or more.

BUFFALO BURIED

On November 18, western New York state was hit with lake effect snows which brought as much as 90 inches of snow. Chew on that for a minute… 90 inches of snow, or 7.5 feet. I do not even know anyone that tall.

What you may find surprising, however, is the fact it did not set a record. Yes, I am surprised as well. The reason is because there is a long bureaucratic process to determining whether or not the total inches which fell in the storm fell at the same time and were measured in the same way.

Glenn Coin of Syracuse.com wrote an article in which he laid out the lengthy process used by little-known government bodies which review the methods and the motives of those who take measurements.

“It has to be taken by trained observer – it can’t just be a guy at the local TV station who goes outside and sticks a ruler in the snow in his back yard,” said Keith Eggleston, a climatologist member of New York’s State Climate Extremes Committee, which rules on records in the state.

To establish a record, it first has to be nominated by the National Weather Service. If a state record may be broken, the state committee then convenes. This committee then determines if a potential national record should be forwarded to the national committee.

Eggleston states the weather service will submit a report which outlines the conditions of the potential record. The committee will then ask what training the observer had and whether or not the proper protocols were followed. These protocols include taking snow measurements just once every six hours, Eggleston said.

For the record (pun intended), the Buffalo weather service office has not requested the committee to convene, though it is likely at least the 24-hour snowfall record at Buffalo will fall.

TROPICAL HAWAII

This was quite a season for the state of Hawaii. The season started off with remnants of a Hawaiian-named storm which brought record rain to the islands and officially ended on November 30 recording the wettest dry-season in 30 years.

According to the National Weather Service, May through September is considered Hawaii’s dry season. This year, however, there were several tropical cyclones which passed in close proximity of the islands.

John Bravender with the National Weather Service stated this hurricane season disproved several myths. “One (of the myths) that the Big Island couldn’t get hit by a tropical cyclone; and two, a hurricane couldn’t pass northeast of the state. And both of these happened with Iselle and Julio.”

Near the islands the ocean waters were about two degrees Celsius above average and this provided the fuel needed for the cyclones to develop and thrive over the warm Pacific Ocean. During the peak of summer, the waters near the islands were in the low 80s.

“This is just one year,” Bravender said. “It is hard to know what to make from that; but it is certainly possible that with warmer waters near the islands we could see more tropical cyclone activity.